Ethereum analyst warns of ‘clean fakeout’ despite 30% ETH price rebound

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Ethereum analyst warns of 'clean fakeout' despite 30% ETH price rebound

One of Ether’s on-chain indicators signals the token has entered its bottoming out phase.

Ethereum analyst warns of 'clean fakeout' despite 30% ETH price rebound

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), underwent a sharp relief rally after falling to $880, its lowest level in eighteen months, on June 18.

ETH price regains 30% in two days

Ether’s price reached above $1,150 this June 19, marking 30%-plus gains in just two days. However, at the beginning of the new weekly session this June 20, the ETH/USD pair hinted at giving up its weekend gains, with its price plunging by almost 9% from the $1,150 high. 

PostyXBT, an independent market analyst, told his 79,800 followers to be careful about the latest ETH price rally, noting that the move “would make for a clean fakeout.” Excerpts from his statement:

ETH price bottom signs?

Meanwhile, one metric that tracks the differences between Ether’s market value and realized value suggests that ETH/USD is bottoming out.

The “MVRV-Z Score,” as it is called, assesses when Ether is overvalued or undervalued relative to its “fair” or realized value. So, when the market value has surpassed realized value, it has historically marked a bull run top.

Conversely, the market value falling below realized value has indicated a bear market bottom (the green zone in the chart below). Ether’s MVRV-Z Score entered the same buying zone in early June and is now consolidating inside it.

Ethereum MVRV Z-Score. Source: Glassnode

But this does not necessarily mean a trend reversal, according to the MVRV-price relation witnessed during the 2018 bear market.

Notably, Ether’s MVRV Z-Score slipped into the green zone on August 12, 2018, when the price was around $319. But the Ethereum token bottomed out at a much later date, on December 14, 2018, when the price reached near $85.

In other words, Ether has entered a bottoming out stage, at best, if the on-chain fractal holds valid in 2022. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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